Hermes OraclePAPER

Updated 2026-08-06 18:09 UTC · auto-refresh 2 min
Overview
Paper trades (5)
Calibration
Leaderboard scans (15)
Cycle reports
Cycles (8)
$+0.00
Paper P&L
Win rate
Brier score
0
Resolved forecasts
5
Open positions
$36.85
Total staked
$0.180
LLM cost
8
Total cycles

LLM cost per cycle ($)

1: 0.013012: 0.030423: 0.024734: 0.027145: 0.024656: 0.029267: 0.015678: 0.01568

Shortlisted vs Scored per cycle

7.0023.2539.5055.7572.00shortlisted1: 72.00002: 63.00003: 52.00004: 48.00005: 43.00006: 37.00007: 53.00008: 64.0000scored1: 8.00002: 7.00003: 7.00004: 7.00005: 7.00006: 7.00007: 7.00008: 7.000012345678shortlistedscored
#CycleMarketCatSideEntryp modelEVSize $StatusP&L
1C5Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?…geopoliticsNO0.5300.0201.85x$9.57OPEN
2C4US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?…geopoliticsNO0.1500.2005.33x$7.65OPEN
3C3Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?…geopoliticsNO0.4200.1502.02x$7.41OPEN
4C3Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?…geopoliticsNO0.6400.0201.53x$9.44OPEN
5C2Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through Aug…geopoliticsNO0.1000.6503.50x$2.78OPEN
0
Resolved forecasts
Brier score
0.0000
Perfect Brier
0.2500
Coin-flip Brier
Insufficient resolved forecasts for calibration (need ≥5). Keep cycling.

15 scan reports on disk.

2026-08-06 18:08 · 23 KB
lb-20260806-1808.html
2026-08-06 17:58 · 23 KB
lb-20260806-1758.html
2026-08-06 17:57 · 24 KB
lb-20260806-1757.html
2026-08-06 17:51 · 23 KB
lb-20260806-1751.html
2026-08-06 15:22 · 1 KB
lb-20260806-1522.html
2026-08-06 15:12 · 1 KB
lb-20260806-1512.html
2026-08-06 15:02 · 1 KB
lb-20260806-1502.html
2026-08-06 14:52 · 1 KB
lb-20260806-1452.html
2026-08-06 14:42 · 1 KB
lb-20260806-1442.html
2026-08-06 14:32 · 1 KB
lb-20260806-1432.html
2026-08-06 14:22 · 1 KB
lb-20260806-1422.html
2026-08-06 14:12 · 1 KB
lb-20260806-1412.html
2026-08-06 14:02 · 1 KB
lb-20260806-1402.html
2026-08-06 13:52 · 1 KB
lb-20260806-1352.html
2026-08-06 13:42 · 1 KB
lb-20260806-1342.html
ReportTimeLink
weekly-2026-W32.html2026-08-05 17:25open
daily-20260806-c8.html2026-08-06 17:44open
daily-20260806-c7.html2026-08-06 13:44open
daily-20260805-c6.html2026-08-05 17:39open
daily-20260805-c5.html2026-08-05 17:24open
daily-20260805-c4.html2026-08-05 17:23open
daily-20260805-c3.html2026-08-05 17:20open
daily-20260805-c2.html2026-08-05 17:18open
daily-20260805-c1.html2026-08-05 17:15open
daily-2026-08-05.html2026-08-05 21:55open
8
Total cycles
5
Total TAKEs
$0.180
Total LLM cost
CycleTimeFetchedShortlistedScoredTAKEsLLM callsCost $
C808-06 17:44200064708$0.0156
C708-06 13:44200053708$0.0156
C608-05 17:39200037708$0.0292
C508-05 17:24200043718$0.0246
C408-05 17:23200048718$0.0271
C308-05 17:20200052728$0.0247
C208-05 17:18200063718$0.0304
C108-05 17:15200072808$0.0130